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PeakMetrics / Fact Checks

Economy & business fact checks

Explore claims publishers have checked about economy & business. Read their original ratings and follow the evidence.

7,104 published reviews in this topic

Pagella PoliticaEconomy & business

Le tasse sono gradualmente diminuite, costantemente negli ultimi sei anni [...], [con il governo Conte, n.d.R.] aumentano di nuovo [...] con 0,4 per cento in più di pressione fiscale

Publisher’s rating: Vero

The review says that Italy’s tax pressure had fallen slightly but continuously over the six years it examined, from 43.6% in 2012 to 41.9% in 2018. It also distinguishes that historical trend from the forecast: the predicted increase was not yet an observed outcome. Citing the latest forecasts from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the excerpt says tax pressure was expected to rise by 0.4% in 2019 under the governing League and Five Star Movement. Thus, the review supports the claim’s account of the past trend and reports the forecast as a prediction, not a confirmed later result.

FACTLYEconomy & business

Recapitalization of PSBs by infusion of 2,11,000 crore rupees leads to credit growth and job creation.

Publisher’s rating: UNVERIFIED

The review separates two parts of the claim: whether Rs. 2,11,000 crore in recapitalization was planned, and whether that recapitalization produced credit growth and jobs. It reports that the government announced the plan in October 2017 and that it was intended to help public sector banks meet capital requirements and enable more lending. The review concludes that the planned recapitalization is supported, but that its effects on credit growth and job creation are not established by the available data. The review draws on a January 2018 Lok Sabha response and the Ministry of Finance’s 2017–18 annual report. The Lok Sabha response describes the announced amount as a two-financial-year plan: Rs. 1,35,000 crore through recapitalization bonds, Rs. 18,139 crore in budgetary provision, and the remaining amount through banks raising capital from the market. The annual report likewise describes mobilizing Rs. 2,11,000 crore through those sources. These records support the existence and planned financing of the recapitalization; they do not, in the excerpts provided, measure resulting lending or employment. The review therefore does not treat the announced purpose as proof of the claimed outcomes. It says capital infusion was intended to supplement banks’ efforts to meet regulatory capital norms and augment growth capital, while concluding that data was unavailable to verify the effects on jobs and credit growth.

FACTLYEconomy & business

Economy growing at a robust rate, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19.

Publisher’s rating: FALSE

FACTLY checked a claim in a BJP government infographic on the 48-months portal that the economy was growing robustly, with 7.4% GDP growth forecast for FY 2018-19. The review compared the claim with official estimates and other cited growth figures, including estimates published during the financial year. The review reports that the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects forecast 7.3% growth for FY 2018-19, rather than 7.4%. It also cites a December 2018 Lok Sabha response reporting growth of 8.2% in the first quarter and 7.1% in the second quarter of FY 2018-19, with growth of 7.6% in the first half. Those figures describe different periods or sources; the review’s final assessment relies on the National Income advance estimates for the full financial year. Those estimates put full-year growth at 7.2% in the first advance estimate and 7% in the second, a downward revision. FACTLY therefore concluded that the infographic’s 7.4% full-year forecast was not supported by the later estimates it cited.

FACTLYEconomy & business

Food inflation down: 9.19% (2014) to 5.44% (2015) to 6.29% (2016) 1.29% (2017) to 3% (2018).

Publisher’s rating: TRUE

FACTLY assessed a government infographic’s claim that food inflation declined across 2014–2018, listing annual figures of 9.19%, 5.44%, 6.29%, 1.29% and 3%. Its conclusion distinguishes the exact figures from the direction of change: it says the absolute numbers are “slightly off the mark,” while finding the downward trend supported. The figures should therefore not be treated as exact values verified by the review. For context, the review says MoSPI releases Consumer Price Indices for rural, urban and combined sectors, including group and subgroup indices. It also reports that food and beverages make up a substantial share of the combined CPI basket, with CFPI accounting for 39.06%. The review identifies the Consumer Food Price Index as the basis for the food-inflation graph it describes. The excerpt does not provide the graph’s underlying annual observations or spell out how the listed figures were calculated. It says the graph shows year-on-year food inflation since 2014, when CFPI began to be released, but that description alone does not establish each annual value or a strictly continuous decline. The review’s stated finding is narrower: the supplied figures are not exact, but the overall trend in falling food inflation is supported.