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PeakMetrics / Fact Checks

Elections & voting fact checks

Explore claims publishers have checked about elections & voting. Read their original ratings and follow the evidence.

5,414 published reviews in this topic

dpa-factcheckingElections & voting

Bei der Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt ging etwas nicht mit rechten Dingen zu. Eine so krasse Verzerrung gegenüber einer Umfrage gab es in der Geschichte der BRD-Wahlen noch nie.

Publisher’s rating: Die Gegenüberstellung der Insa-Umfrage mit der Hochrechnung ist irreführend und kein Hinweis auf vermeintlichen Wahlbetrug. Umfragen anderer Institute weisen geringere Abweichungen auf. Umfragen können Wahlentscheidungen zudem beeinflussen. Hinweise auf Unregelmäßigkeiten sah die Landeswahlleiterin nicht.

The claim arose from a social-media graphic comparing an INSA poll published shortly before the 6 June 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election with a ZDF projection from election night. The graphic showed the CDU at 27% and the AfD at 26% in the poll, versus 35.2% and 23.3% respectively in the projection. The post treated that gap as unprecedented and suggested the election had not been conducted properly. The review compared the poll not only with the projection but also with the final result: the CDU received 37.1% and the AfD 20.8%. Thus, the final-result gaps from the INSA figures were about 10 and 5 percentage points, respectively. The investigation notes that the INSA poll was only one snapshot and that other institutes’ polls were closer to the eventual result. A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll on 3 June put the CDU at 30% and the AfD at 23%, gaps of about 7 and 2 points from the final result. An Infratest dimap poll on 27 May had the CDU about 9 points below and the AfD about 3 points above their eventual vote shares. These comparisons show why the single INSA poll did not represent all available pre-election estimates. The review could neither confirm nor refute the post’s broader assertion that a gap of this size had never occurred in German federal elections. It does give examples of substantial poll-to-result differences, including the 2005 federal election, when the final Union vote was 35.2% after a last Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll put CDU/CSU at 41%. On the allegation of wrongdoing, the review reports that Saxony-Anhalt’s state election commissioner saw no indications of irregularities. It also notes pollsters’ view that polling may influence voters’ decisions, and that polls have a margin of error; the INSA poll reported a three-point margin.

Deutsche Presse-AgenturElections & voting

Die Bundestagswahl rückt näher und zum ersten Mal treten die Grünen mit einer Kandidatin für das Kanzleramt an. In einem Sharepic auf Facebook wird behauptet, die Partei wolle eine ganze Reihe von alltäglichen Dingen verbieten: Von Verbrennungsmotoren, Einfamilienhäusern und Kurzstreckenflügen über Motorradfahren, neue Autobahnen und SUVs bis zu Schnittblumen, billige Lebensmitteln und Swimmingpools.

Publisher’s rating: In Hannover sollen Swimmingpools in Kleingärten ab 2022 verboten werden. Die anderen Verbote sind aus der Luft gegriffen, manches soll aber neu geregelt werden.

The review examines a Facebook sharepic claiming that the Greens intended to ban a list of everyday things, from combustion-engine cars and detached houses to motorcycles, cut flowers, inexpensive food and swimming pools. Its findings distinguish between outright bans, proposals to regulate particular activities, and claims for which it found no support in the party’s 2021 election programme. On cars, the programme proposed ending new registrations of combustion-engine vehicles from 2030, not banning existing ones. The review says the Greens instead proposed a quota for emissions-free cars and higher vehicle taxes for combustion-engine vehicles. It also found no general ban on detached houses: the party’s parliamentary group said they would continue to exist, while local municipalities would decide what could be built. For short-haul flights, the party’s stated aim was to make them unnecessary through expanded rail service by 2030, rather than prohibit them. The remaining examples also require qualification. The review found no motorcycle ban, but reported a parliamentary proposal to limit motorcycle noise emissions to 80 decibels; no general ban on new motorways, although some planned sections still under review could be reconsidered; and no general SUV ban. It found no cut-flower ban and no proposal to ban inexpensive food, but did report a plan to address artificially low food prices. The swimming-pool claim had a specific, local basis: in Hannover, large pools in allotment gardens were to be prohibited from 2022 because of water shortages. The review found no nationwide Greens proposal on that issue.

Deutsche Presse-AgenturElections & voting

Fast 60 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten in Sachsen-Anhalt haben bei der Landtagswahl 2021 keine Stimme abgegeben.

Publisher’s rating: Die Grafik zeigt den Stand von 16 Uhr, nicht das tatsächliche Ergebnis nach Abschluss des Wahltages.

The claim concerns turnout in the 6 June 2021 state election in Saxony-Anhalt. The review says a social-media graphic gave the impression that three in five eligible voters had stayed away, but that figure reflected turnout at 4 p.m., not the final result. Polling stations did not close until 6 p.m., and postal ballots were counted after they closed. The review reports that turnout stood at 41% at 4 p.m. Postal voting was especially significant: the share of postal voters reached a record 29.1%. By about 3 a.m. on 7 June, the preliminary official final result showed that 60.3% of eligible voters had participated. Thus, the claim reverses the meaning of the final turnout figure: it describes participation, not the share who abstained. The review adds that final turnout was low compared with recent state elections elsewhere, but it was not a record low. It cites turnout of 50.2% in Bremen’s 2015 election and 47.9% in Brandenburg’s 2014 state election, while the lowest figure it identifies for a state election was 44.4% in Saxony-Anhalt in 2006.

BR24 FaktenfuchsElections & voting

Das Ergebnis der Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt wurde manipuliert, darauf deutet unter anderem der große Unterschied zwischen dem Wahlergebnis und Vorwahl-Umfragen hin. Wahlhelfer haben Stimmen für die AfD entwertet. Es gibt mehr ungültige Stimmen als sonst.

Publisher’s rating: Falsch. Es gibt keine Hinweise auf eine Manipulation der Wahl. Nicht alle Umfragen prognostizierten ein Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen zwischen der CDU und der AfD. Und: Umfragen bilden immer nur eine Momentaufnahme ab. Es gibt außerdem keinen Hinweis darauf, dass Wahlhelfer Stimmen der AfD entwertet hätten. Ein Bild, dass den Betrug durch Wahlhelfer zeigen soll, ist aus dem Kontext gerissen und stammt von der US-Wahl 2020. Bei der Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt gab es sogar weniger ungültige Stimmen als bei der letzten Landtagswahl 2016.